The end of Novorossiya: Putin on the verge of defeat
The next round of talks on stabilizing the situation in eastern Ukraine were slated to take place in Minsk on December 9 [though on December 12 the date still has not determined]. The plans are to focus less on new peace initiatives and more on forging a mechanism to allow the implementation of agreements that had been reached back in September but were not fulfilled.
The situation now is fundamentally different than it was back in September. Back in September Ukraine was in a losing position. The infamous Battle of Ilovaisk had just taken place and the Ukrainian military had suffered a severe blow. President Poroshenko was seeking a way to stabilize the situation in eastern Ukraine not only to halt Russia’s advance on Mariupol but to carve out some time for parliamentary elections, hoping to gain reasonable support.
In many ways the September agreements that were reached were far from ideal for Ukraine and Kyiv reacted with a great deal of criticism. Kyiv was dissatisfied with the political part of the agreement: the militants in Donbas were given de facto recognition, it was agreed that they could keep the occupied territory, and a certain “special status” would be guaranteed that was perceived by many to be a first step in federalizing the country following the Kremlin’s directions.
It’s true that neither the Ukrainian leadership nor the separatist leaders proceeded to fulfill their obligations in any serious way. In Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts illegal and unrecognized local elections were held and that gave Kyiv grounds to ignore the political and financial obligations that had been reached in the agreement. The ceasefire and withdrawal of troops which had been agreed upon in the memorandum also did not take place.
It seemed there were no significant changes in the conflict zone after the agreement. Yet it only seemed that way. The overall situation around the frozen conflict evolved quite rapidly and almost always in Ukraine’s favor.
Firstly, President Putin was completely ostracized by the western leaders and China at the G20 Summit in Brisbane. The chief of the Kremlin was made to understand that no one believes his lies about Russian claims of non-intervention in Ukraine. He was also made to understand that if he continues to fan the flames the most severe sanctions will be implemented, including the exclusion of the Russian banks from SWIFT, “the global provider of secure messaging services.” That would be a severe blow to Russia’s financial institutions, all the more since they are already on shaky ground. With that threat the western leaders have actually defused the danger that Russian-supported separatists will further escalate the conflict. Any attacks on Mariupol or Debaltseve would now be a death blow to Russian banks and to the whole economy.
Secondly, with the coming of winter it has become evident that the separatist leadership is incapable of providing any kind of normal life for the inhabitants in the occupied territories without external financial support. Bitterly cold Donetsk and Luhansk find themselves on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. Smaller towns have already crossed the line: if we are to name things what they are, there is famine in the towns. Old people in particular are suffering. With the absence of functioning social and medical agencies the old people are slowly dying in their freezing homes with no food or medicines.
Thirdly, the separatist groups are wrangling over the dwindling resources and over retaining the support of Moscow. The possibility that a unified leadership in the so-called DNR and LNR can or will emerge is non-existent. Because they are fragmented, because there is an absence of a unified leadership they are unable and unwilling to abide by the ceasefire. That circumstance makes it impossible for them to agree on what their strategic objectives are. There are those who want independence, some want to join Russia, and others want broad autonomy within Ukraine. Until recently each group had its supporters in Moscow and each sought Putin’s political support.
By the beginning of December, the overall status of the separatists deteriorated. The hope that after the Battle of Ilovaisk Ukraine would agree to recognize the separatists and would agree to provide an official plan to federalize eastern Ukraine has been dashed. The isolation of the occupied territories from any financial means has led to the crash of the local economy. Moscow has ended up with a bunch of armed people, a destabilized region, and a famished and freezing population.
The Russian leadership is left with four options:
- To escalate the conflict and to force the Ukrainian side to declare federalization and to take on the responsibility for Donbas and its people
- To drop the Novorossia project, let the people fend for themselves, close off the border to Russia and admit and declare defeat
- To freeze the conflict by absorbing Donbas and its resources
- To try to achieve the original objectives through negotiation
The first option has been rejected by the hawks in the Kremlin citing the above-mentioned reasons (collapse of the economy, social upheaval and popular unrest).
The second option is unacceptable for ideological reasons. The Russian people who for over a year have been told that “those are our people” will be unable to comprehend or to accept such a decision. Today already men like Strelkov-Girkin are explicitly blaming the Kremlin for betraying “Novorossia” and are gaining popularity among the most conservative segment of Russian society. Besides, in Moscow everyone understands that abandoning Donbas will not lift the international sanctions that are in place. Crimea is next in line. For the Kremlin it is essential to keep stoking instability in eastern Ukraine for as long as possible. Capitulation is not an option.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/12/12/the-end-of-novorossiya-putin-on-the-verge-of-defeat/ (More …)
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