Ruble in recent days again fell a record. As of December 17 for one dollar demanded nearly 68 units of the Russian national currency, and the day before the euro on time even exceeded 100 rubles. For ordinary citizens of Russia, this means only one thing: the depreciation of their income and savings.
Are the Russians to build a logical chain and analyze what caused the crisis? Will Vladimir Putin continues to enjoy the support going wild in the country? Is Russia ready to own the Maidan? Is it possible to stop the military aggression of the Kremlin economic measures?
On these issues, “Observer” said political experts – Vladimir Fesenko (Kiev) and Andrei Okara (Moscow).
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Volodymyr Fesenko , director of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta”
-Ponyatno That the situation with the Ukrainian hryvnia and the Russian ruble like …
-Not At all. There are differences. Let’s just say the reasons for the devaluation of the national currency in Ukraine and Russia are different, despite the fact that apparently similar situations. I do not want to take away the bread from fellow economists, but we have a problem of the hryvnia associated with the war and with the difficult financial situation, including external and internal debt, who scored all of the previous government.
As for Russia, there is a war, too, plays an important role. War and the annexation of the Crimea provoked sanctions against Russia, but as soon as the sanctions to add the effect of falling oil prices, in the end it all and brought down the Russian ruble.
-Stanut Whether the economic problems of Russia the reason for the weakening of the Russian government?
-What, The Russian ruble weakened in Washington or Brussels? Russians are now in shock. I think that there are no political reasons but war. This is a fee for the Russian aggression and Russian adventurism. They thought that everything would be without consequences, all swallow. But in the end it came out sideways.
In Ukraine, there is an illusion in relation to Russia when there is a separation of Putin and Russia. Not by chance, more than 80% of Russians support Putin until recently. Now because of the economic and social causes, support will decline. But, unfortunately, what Putin has done, to comply with most of the sentiments of Russians. Putin did something like Russians. But now it will have to pay a high price to pay, including from his own pocket. Russians.
Will they understand it or not – is another question. God forbid that this lesson was not empty, that was followed by the realization that this is not the ill will of the United States, it is not the West that Russia is trying to spread rot. This is payback for his own misconduct, for the Crimea and the war in the Donbass.
-If You understand, in Moscow will Maidan?
-not Sure. Independence Square in Kiev in 2004 and in 2013 there was not motivated by economic problems. Our people different mentality, different values, and therefore are Ukrainian citizens differently than Russian.
-Our Citizens more mature?
-Yes I Am. As for the Russians – Russia’s experience shows that if there is a combination of three factors – the economic crisis, the defeat in the war and split the elites – if problems arise even for the political regime, and for most of the Russian state.
In Russia there is no defeat in the war, but the economic crisis is becoming a reality.
How did I know, split elites not yet in sight.
-So Far not expected. But it is necessary to draw conclusions about the war, from it is necessary to leave Russia. If this awareness is, then maybe they will come out and gradually out of the crisis. And if they act irrationally – I mean, first of all, Russian leaders – then the risks for the Russian state will increase. In fact, the split elites also did not come from nowhere, and as a consequence of the economic crisis and the problems of military-political problems.
-Can We expect that Putin will stop its aggression under the pressure of these problems?
-If He will act rationally, it should intensify its action to get out of the crisis that originated in eastern Ukraine. Crimea give they will not be realistic. But with the Donbas he should go…………………”
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